PECOTA Projected MLB Standings 2019

PECOTA released their 2019 MLB Standings projections this week. PECOTA, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm

Noah Syndergaard (Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports)

According to Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA is a system that takes a player’s past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune.

Based on the PECOTA system, these are the project 2019 MLB Standings:

American League

AL East –

New York Yankees 95-67

Boston Red Sox 89-73

Tampa Bay Rays 86-76

Toronto Blue Jays 76-86

Baltimore Orioles 59-103

AL Central – 

Cleveland Indians 97-65

Minnesota Twins 81-81

Kansas City Royals 72-90

Chicago White Sox 71-91

Detroit Tigers 67-95

AL West –

Houston Astros 98-64

Los Angeles Angels 80-82

Oakland Athletics 79-83

Seattle Mariners 74-88

Texas Rangers 70-92

Houston Astros Alex Bregman (Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports)

National League

NL East –

Washington Nationals 89-73

New York Mets 88-74

Philadelphia Phillies 86-76

Atlanta Braves 85-77

Miami Marlins 67-95

NL Central –

Milwaukee Brewers 88-74

St. Louis Cardinals 86-76

Chicago Cubs 81-81

Cincinatti Reds 81-81

Pittsburgh Pirates 81-81

NL West –

Los Angeles Dodgers 94-68

Colorado Rockies 86-76

Arizona D-Backs 82-80

San Diego Padres 75-87

San Franciso Giants 73-89

MLB.com

According to these projections, the Yankees will be the best team in baseball while the Red Sox take a major step back. No team in the MLB will win 100 games. The National League will be super competitive as only three teams will finish under .500. The Mets will host the Phillies, Cardinals or Rockies at Citi Field in the wild card game after finishing 1 game behind the Nationals for the NL East crown.