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Weekly Taste: John Venezia’s best NFL Week 6 bets and tips

Starting to get giddy. We’ve got an entertaining Sunday slate of NFL games on deck. Your honor, no objections.

Entering Week 6 of the NFL calendar, I noticed a very peculiar trend contradicting Week 5; a lot of tighter spreads. As of Wednesday, 6 games sit at 3/3.5 on the spread, while 4 games were at 2/2.5. Now, a couple of them have moved into the 4/4.5 territory. Nevertheless, Vegas is expecting many of these matchups to be close. And as per usual, a lot of high scoring affairs (8 bouts of a 50 or higher point totals).

Some of these games have caught my eye. Trying to capitalize on certain favorable projections, we dive into a week where a lot of options are on the table. In addition, as a treat, I will divulge my first-ballot teaser of Week 6. Last week was a 1-2 recording, but honestly the Cowboys cover if Dak Prescott doesn’t go down (speedy recovery), and the Jaguars didn’t some weird shi…..whatever.

Monitoring the lines and injury reports all week, here are the contests that we should be keeping our eyes on. Let’s dive into some of the best NFL Week 6 bets and tips.

NFL Week 6 Bets:

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5) | Have the Titans proved they are indeed a Super Bowl contender?

Through 5 weeks, the AFC’s number 1 seed currently resides in the Music City. The 4-0 Titans have been that kid everybody would want to bully because of their incessant need to put the season in jeopardy with their utter lack of regard as it pertains to numerous Covid violations/outbreaks. Despite having their matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers pushed back and coming off a “bye,” they bent the then 4-0 Buffalo Bills over a barrel and showed them the 50 states on Monday night in the fashion of 42-16 victory. A truly convincing performance. The funny thing is, it doesn’t truly seem like Tennessee has found their offensive groove just yet. Also, couldn’t forget the stiff arm from Derrick Henry to throw Bills corner Josh Norman into oblivion.

Houston, lol. Yes, they captured their first W last week against the bizarre franchise that is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Truth be told, that game should have been much closer (possibly even a loss) had the Jags not missed 2 field goals before half, as well, as try a backyard football half back pitch pass on 4th down deep in the red zone. Quite frankly, the Texans are a bad team. Divisional games are different, yes, but their bottom of the barrel run defense should have major problems stopping the modern-day Hercules, one King Derrick Henry.

While this may be a bit of a trap game, it’s more prudent to stay with the home team here. The one caution about this is it will be interesting to see if Tennessee is weary on a short week, or if they just show up unprepared.

PREDICTION: Titans smack the Texans and cover the home 3.5.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Are the Dolphins a force to be reckoned with?

The Miami Dolphins are a weird team. Sitting a 2-3, they have showed tremendous spunk by hanging with every opponent they’ve faced thus far. An organization that went on a complete shopping spree this off season, they look like a franchise that has the arrow pointing up. After traveling to San Francisco and dominating the defending NFC Champion 49ers 43-17, we can’t count them as a pushover anymore. Not to mention, Ryan Fitzpatrick just oozes swag (and yes, it is possible to get pregnant by just looking at a picture.)

New York is abysmal at football…. Well it’s New Jersey. Both teams currently stand at 0-5, but the Jets are by far worse. It clearly seems like they are tanking. Head Coach Adam Gase somehow miraculously is still employed, even after the ongoing rift with now former high-priced running back acquisition Le’Veon Bell (now in Kansas City… Surely, he’s thrilled). It’s not out of pocket to think Gang Green is in for an infamous 0-16 season. Not only do they not win, they are barely competitive.

Normally, I hate big spreads like this…. And I don’t want to buy in on Miami just yet. However, it’s a fair point to bet big against the Jets every week. Starting Joe Flacco again at QB, the Dolphins should have a field day against a team that might not be able to hang vs a strong college program (only half kidding about that).

PREDICTION: Dolphins cover the home 9.5.

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Can the Ravens avoid a road let down?

Baltimore is a strong team. As predicted, their offense has taken a step back… or two this season. While still formidable, it’s clearly lacking what made them so successful in 2019, the element of surprise. As teams have been able to study film and game plan against this gimmick offense, the lust has worn off a bit. However, that does not apply to this defense. That unit is LEGIT. Defensive coordinator, Wink Martindale, operates a top shelf unit that predicates on bringing pressure…. Pretty much like a kid playing Madden that just hits “Engage Eight” on every play. Annoying, yes, but also successful.

The Philadelphia Eagles are garbage. Straight up. At 1-3-1, it’s not unreasonable to think they are one of the 7 worst teams in the NFL. Injuries at major positions have played a critical role in their demise, but the mojo that powered them to a Super Bowl title in 2017 seems to be gone. Carson Wentz may not have a ton of weapons, but his fundamentals just look off. While they did play a strong game last week vs the Steelers, it’s hard to see them as a team capable of running with the bulls. The Eagles are flying pretty low these days.

While I was never on the Ravens bandwagon, it’s obvious to recognize the superior talent and execution difference between these 2 squads. With even more injuries this week, especially on the O-Line, it’s tough to see Philly hanging tough around with a defense that loves to dial up the pressure.

PREDICTION: Ravens win and cover the road 7.5.

Week 6 NFL Teaser Play:

My weekly betting formula, which has been extremely successful, and profitable in the 2020 season, is to select 4 games I feel highly confident about each week and tease them with 6 points. The standard play is $100 to win $300. While it may not seem like a ton of bread, it’s important to remember, slow and steady wins the race. This is a volume game.

For this week, there seems to be a decent amount of options to choose from. The Week 6 teaser play looks like this:

Miami Dolphins -3.5 (originally 9.5): We touched on why Miami should cover the 9.5 outright. They are the much better team, and it seems like New York is tanking. Miami has scored 23 points or more the previous 4 matchups, while the Jets have yet to allow less than 27 this season.

Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (originally 7.5): Another contest discussed. The Ravens are a pain in the ass to play against, especially when you’re in an offensive funk. It’s extremely difficult to see that Philly offense putting up more than 17 against them. Baltimore has many formulas to win football games. And essentially, that’s all they have to do laying 1.5 points in a teaser.

Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 49.5 (originally 55.5): The Packers are fresh off a bye with star receiver Davante Adams back in action. The Bucs are coming off a bad blown lead loss to the Chicago Bears last Thursday night. With wide out Chris Godwin returning, Tampa is ready to get back in the win column. Defensively both units could be missing key pieces (DT Vita Vea is out for the year for Tampa; LB’s Za’Darius Smith and Rashan Gary are both questionable). Green Bay has yet to score under 30 this year, while the Bucs have put up 23 or more in 4 out of 5 games. We should be seeing a shootout in America’s Game of the Week. 49.5 should be an easy hit.

Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (originally +7.5): The Colts made a lot of mental mistakes last Sunday in their disappoint road loss at the Browns. While the Bengals are no pushover, these 2 teams should not be in the same league. Like the Ravens, the Colts essentially have to win to hit this leg of the teaser. We should see Philip Rivers have a rebound game against the Bengals 23rd ranked defense.

JohnnyVTV currently sits 31-20 on the season. For all NFL betting plays, follow @JohnnyVTV on Instagram.

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John Venezia is JDF Sports lead bettor on NFL and MLB, while also contributing extensively for fantasy football. He operates a self-created video segment on his Instagram account, @JohnnyVTV called the Weekly Taste, where he locks in all of the best NFL bets of the week.

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