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What is Travis Konecny getting paid?

The Flyers have some big contract years for a potential Stanley Cup core. We’re going to try and discuss one important deal.

With a light finally at the end of a salary cap tunnel, Philadelphia actually has room to spend a little cash. They could finally afford James van Riemsdyk (only because Artemi Panarin didn’t work out), and his $35 million deal with the weight of some bad contracts rotting away.

This means fan favorite Travis Konecny is going to get his payday. In the last year of his rookie deal, he’s going to want to increase his future checks by the game.

Here’s how the cap sits right now via CapFriendly:

2018-19 Salary Cap: $79,500,000

2018-19 Flyers Cap Space: $10,282,500

2019-20 Flyers Cap Space: $33,400,000

Yes, that’s with Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, Gostisbehere and JvR signed. That’s a lot of money to use, and with the current crop of ELC’s, they’re going to need every bit of it.

Current NHL players on rookie deals are Patrick, Provorov, Konecny, Sanheim, Lindblom and potentially Philippe Myers. As of now, these players have a combined cost of $5,179,000 (or, the cost of one Kevin Hayes).

This $33 million can be fully allocated to Provorov and Konecny, as well as Sanheim who may not command the same hefty price just yet. There won’t be any penny pinching necessary— not this year, that is.

A comparable player to Konecny (similar production in age ~21 season) is Sam Reinhart. The second overall pick in 2014 gave the Sabres 42, 47, and 50 points in his three ELC years. He had more ice time than Konecny on a lesser overall team.

On September 19th, he signed a two-year deal at an average annual value (AAV) of $3,650,000. This is a total cost of $73,000 per point, a good short-term deal for Buffalo.

Konecny is coming off a breakout season. His rookie year, he scored 28 points with 11 goals. This past season, he ramped up to 47 points with 24 goals. There’s a little upward trajectory here.

Given top line minutes and skilled linemates, 30 goals isn’t totally unrealistic with his speed. We’ve seen what 30 goal scorers get paid— one just joined the team for $7 million.

Thats why Konecny could wait to sign that extension; he could be betting on himself. To sign sooner would be a safe, guaranteed three or four million dollar bridge deal similar to Reinhart’s.

It’s unlikely he gets $7 million, unless he really blows us all away. The open free agency market inflates the cost of talent. Buying up RFA years, where there’s no competition to sign the player, means that Konecny will be signed for under his market value.

Until the moment he signs, theres no way to tell what he could get. His ceiling hasn’t been reached, and it could easily fluctuate. He could score anywhere from 50 to 70 points and it wouldn’t surprise a lot of people.

Hextall has signed some incredible contracts (Selke finalist Sean Couturier is signed for $4.3 million). It’s time for some more magic.

A bridge deal in the two or three year range makes the most sense. Konecny should bet on developing into an elite winger and sign long-term once he’s a proven commodity. The UFA years and rising cap suggest he could get more than anticipated this way, but the Flyers will get their money’s worth.

If Konecny finishes at 60 points, this is a very similar cost per point as Jake Voracek’s deal. To get a discounted third year on a bridge contract could drive the price up for the short-term, but would save a few million in that third year. As an armchair GM, TK can have whatever he wants.

High Prediction: 3 years, $16,500,000 ($5.5 AAV)

Low Prediction: 2 years, $8,000,000 ($4 AAV)

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